As the retail landscape becomes littered with bankruptcies and store closures, one brand is poised to triple its revenue over the next five years.
Canada Goose, the high-end winter coat maker whose shares started trading on the Toronto and New York Stock Exchanges last month, has several levers that could boost its revenue from $380 million to $1 billion by 2022, Wells Fargo analyst Ike Boruchow said.
They include rolling out its business across Europe and Asia, shifting more of its sales out of the less profitable wholesale model, expanding into new product categories, and opening flagship stores in tourist-heavy markets, Boruchow said.
The analyst's optimistic outlook comes as other brands across the industry are shrinking their store footprints and filing for bankruptcy. Already this year, 10 retailers have filed for protection under Chapter 11 and more filings are on the horizon.
Shares of Canada Goose were trading slightly higher Monday, at CA$22.64 and $17.11 on their respective exchanges.
"In a world of retail consolidation, over-distributed brands and diminishing margin stories across the retail space, we view Canada Goose as a rare find — an upwardly trending brand with meaningful opportunities for topline growth and margin runway," Boruchow told investors.
Boruchow has an "outperform" rating on Canada Goose shares and a price target of CA$25 to CA$26.
BMO Capital Markets and Credit Suisse also initiated coverage of Canada Goose with "outperform" ratings on Monday. Of the 11 analysts who cover Canada Goose and are tracked by FactSet, eight have "buy" ratings. The other three have "hold" ratings.
Despite Canada Goose's opportunities for revenue expansion, one of the biggest risks to its growth potential is the use of coyote fur on its parkas, Credit Suisse said. The company has already attracted the attention of PETA, which said it would buy shares of Canada Goose stock so it could attend shareholder meetings.
Canada Goose has said the use of fur and down are critical to keeping wearers' warm and that it sources both in an ethical manner.